专家研讨美联储加息对全球经济影响时认为——加息符合预期 警惕“叠加效应”

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2018-11-05

DORTMUND,Germany-WorldchampionGermanyhostsEnglandinaprestigiousfriendlyhereonWednesday,withbothcoachesprimedtointroducesomebrightyoungprospectstooneofsoccer"sgreatrivalries.ButthatiswherethesimilaritiesendforJoachimLoewandGarethSouthgate,whoishelmingEnglandforthefirsttimeaspermanentmanager.SouthgatetakesoverwithEnglandatitslowestebbinrecentmemoryandwithdomesticexpectationsrock-bottom.Loew,whohasbeenatthehelmsince2006,needsonlytofine-tuneGermanyfordefenseofitscrownatnextyear"sWorldCupinRussia.LoewissettogiveadebuttomercurialforwardTimoWerner,21,whilegoalkeeperandcaptainManuelNeuerhasbeenruledoutwithacalfinjury.GermanyisalsowithouttheDortmundduoofwingerMarcoReusandattackingmidfielderMarioGoetze,theformerwithahamstringinjurywhileGoetzeisrecoveringfromametabolismdisorder.ThereisalsonoplaceforBayernMunich"sJeromeBoateng,thecentraldefenderwhoisregainingfitnessaftershouldersurgery.GermanyandEnglandhavewildlycontrastingrecordsatrecentmajortournaments,includingEuro2016,whereupstartIcelandhumiliatedEnglandwhiletheGermansmadethesemifinals.Still,Germanyischasingitsfirsthomewinsince1987overitsoldrivalandneedsnoremindingofthe5-1maulingittookinMunichin2001,whenMichaelOwensnipedahat-trick.ButSouthgate"ssquadisparticularlylightintheforwarddepartment,missingtheinjuredHarryKaneandDanielSturridgeanddroppingskipperWayneRooney.ThemanagerisdebutingJamesWard-Prowse,captainofEngland"sunder-21team,alongwith23-year-oldSouthamptonteammateNathanRedmond.SouthgatealsorecalledstrikerJermainDefoe,returningtothesquadat34.Defoeisanexception,asbothSouthgateandLoewwilltesttheiryounggunsbeforeWorldCupqualifiersonSunday,whenGermanyplaysAzerbaijaninBakuandEnglandhostsLithuania.DisappointedBothcountrieslooklikelockstoreachRussia,butEnglandhasconsistentlydisappointedwhenresultsreallymatter."Ifwewanttoreachourambitionsandgoalswehavetoplaytheseteamsandbeatthem,"Ward-ProwsesaidonMonday.ThiswillbeSouthgate"sfifthgameinchargeofEngland,buthisfirstsincebeingnamedpermanentmanagerinNovember.The46-year-oldoversawwinsoverMaltaandScotland,plusdrawswithSloveniaandSpain,ascaretakercoachfollowingSamAllardyce"sdepartureafterjustonegameduetoanewspapersting.Aformerdefender/midfielderforEngland,Southgateislookingtoaltertheteam"smindset."Iwasonateamthatmadeasemifinal(Euro96),andthathashappenedoncesince1990andtwicesince1966,"hesaid."That"smyjob,toanalyzewhathasn"tbeenrightandthenshowtheladsapathway."Ithinkweneedtobeprettybrutalaboutthewaywelookatit.I"mnotromanticaboutit.I"mjustfocusedonhowwewin."DannyRose(kneeligaments),JordanHenderson(bruisedfoot),MichailAntonio(hamstring),Kane(ankle)andSturridge(hip)aresidelinedwithinjuries.WhenEnglandandGermanylastmet,ayearago,Germanyracedintoa2-0leadongoalsbyToniKroosandMarioGomez.Kane,JamieVardyandEricDierthenscoredtosealEngland"scomeback.ThefriendlywillseeforwardLukasPodolski,whoretiredfrominternationalsoccerlastyear,makehis130thandfinalappearanceforGermany."FromanemotionalpointofviewWednesday"sgameisachancetosaygoodbyetoLukas,"saidstrikerThomasMueller."We"replayingathomeandit"llbesomethingveryspecialforhim."AgenceFrance-PresseAtlastweekend"sopeningceremonyfortheHaidianDistrictSchoolHockeyLeague"sseason,SongandYingencouragedyoungsterstotakeupthesport."IcanimaginethatmoreandmorestudentshavepickeduphockeyinBeijing.Let"senjoythepassionandjoyofthesportaltogether...andIexpecttoseesomeofyouontheiceatthe2022WinterOlympics,"saidSong,whoisplayingcollegehockeyatCornellUniversityinIthaca,NewYork,inanticipationofchallengingforaspotintheNHL.Ying,whoseseasonwrappedupwhenRedStarwasknockedoutoftheKHLplayoffsthreeweeksago,saidthekeytograduatingfromjuniorhockeytotheproranksisperseverance."Therewillbealotofchallengesanddistractions,suchasaheavystudyload,theemphasisonacademicexcellenceinChinaandmaybeotherhobbies,"saidthe18-year-oldYing."Butonceyougetintothesportyouwillbeaddictedtoit.Myadviceistokeepworkingatitwheneveryoucanandtostickwithitnomatterwhathappens."Theschoolleague"snewseason,whichrunsthroughApril,involves40teamsandmorethan520primaryandsecondaryplayerscompetinginthreeagegroups.Althoughstillontheperipheryofnationalpopularity,hockeyisgrowingbyleapsandboundsinBeijing,asevidencedbythenumberofamateurclubsinthecapital.AccordingtotheBeijingHockeyAssociation,130teamsencompassingfivedifferentagegroupstooktotheiceduringtheBeijingMinorHockeyLeague"s2016-17season,whichwrappeduplastweek.That"sahugeincreasefromtheBMHL"sdebutseasonin2008,whenonlyfourteamscompeted.Morethan3,000juniorplayershaveregisteredwiththeassociationtotakepartinweeklyafter-schoolpracticesessionsandleaguecompetitions,saidSuJun,deputydirectoroftheyouthdepartmentofBeijingSportsBureau.Toprovidemoreadvancedtrainingandaccessiblefacilitiesforyoungplayers,WukesongArena,aBeijing2022venue,hassignedapartnershipwiththeHaidiandistricteducationcommissiontobecomeanextracurricularphysicaleducationbase.Thearena,whichhostsRedStarhomegames,willopenitsrinkforstudenttrainingsessions,offerfreeticketsforstudentstoattendgamesandwillorganizeprogramstohelptrainPEteachers.sunxiaochen@chinadaily.com.cnTheinitiativecanbeatruly"gamechanging"proposalprovideditisabletofostertrustandconfidenceamongmemberstates.Theinitiativeshouldgobeyondbilateralprojecttransactionstopromoteregionalandmultilateralpolicyframeworksandsustainability.ItistruethattheinitiativewillgeneratemutualbenefitsforChinaanditspartners.However,theeconomic,socialandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsvaryacrosscorridors,dependingontheterrain,stateofdevelopment,productivecapacitiesandtrafficflows.Researchhasshownthatinitiativecorridorswillentailhigherbenefitsifpartnercountrieslowercrossbordertransactioncostsandimporttariffs.Forinstancea30percentdeclineinbothofthesewouldgenerateeconomicgainsof1.8percentgrowthinGDPforChinaandanywherefrom5.3to16.9percentGDPforotherparticipatingmembercountries.Improvingthequalityofinfrastructureincountrieswithlessefficienttraderegimesandborderadministrationmayresultinonlylimitedexportgains.Ouranalysissuggeststhata1percentimprovementintradefacilitationprocedures,qualityoftransportinfrastructureandinformationandcommunicationtechnologywilldeliver1.5,0.7and1.4percentincreasesinexports,respectively.Gainsarehigherforcorridorswheretradeagreementsmayalreadyexist.Withnearlytwo-thirdsofinitiativecountriesfacingenergydeficits,theinitiativeneedstocomplementandsupplementthesubregionalenergyconnectivityinitiatives.Thereismuchscopetodeveloppowergrids,promotesmart,greenandintegratedpowerandgasmarkets,harnesscross-bordergasandoilpipelinesfromresourcerichCentralAsiatoSouthandEastAsia.DrawingontheinitiativesoftheStateGridCorporationofChinaandtheGlobalEnergyInterconnectionDevelopmentCooperationOrganizationtopromoteglobalenergyinterconnectionscanenhancetheregion"senergysecurityandadvancesustainableenergyaccess.ItisalsoevidentthatICThastobeanessentialfoundationfortheinitiativeasitcanharnesscrosssectoralsynergies.E-resilienceofICTcanbeenhancedthroughincreasingdiversifiedandredundantfiberopticcables,raisingbandwidth,developingnationalICTinfrastructure,andloweringfixed-broadbandpricesasapercentageofpercapitagrossnationalincome.Theseactionscanhelpdevelopuniformqualityofservicesbetweenendpointswhichwillfacilitatetrafficdelivery,ensurelowtransitcosts,andefficientInternettrafficmanagementusingInternetexchangepoints.Whilethesocialbenefitsofsomecorridorsarehigh,thereisneedtoadoptmoreinclusiveapproachestocopewithsocialrisks.Forexample,connectingtheinitiativetoremoteareaswithnewmulti-countrycorridorswouldenableruralindustrializationandhelpnarrowurban-ruralgaps.ItisthereforeimportantthatsynergiesandcomplementaritiesbetweentheobjectivesoftheinitiativeandtheSDGscanhelpcreateawin-winsolution,particularlyasregionalcooperationandintegrationwillfacilitaterealizationoftransboundarygoals.Theinitiativewithitsunprecedentedambitionandscaleentailsenormouscomplexitiesandchallenges;however,itoffersphenomenalopportunitiestoputAsiaonawell-balancedgrowthandsustainabledevelopmentpath.Theauthorisanunder-secretary-generaloftheUnitedNationsandtheexecutivesecretaryoftheEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific.Currentlyonafour-nationtourofEurope,JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbeisseekingthesupportofEuropeancountriesinhisbidtogettheSouthChinaSeadisputesontheagendafortheG7summit,tobeheldinItalyinMay.GiventhatneitherJapannoranyEuropeancountriesaredirectlyinvolvedinthemaritimedisputesintheSouthChinaSea,Abeisshowinghisdesiretomeddleintheissueforhisownends.ThisisnotthefirsttimethatAbehastriedtohijacktheG7agendaandsoughttointernationalizetheSouthChinaSeadisputestoservehisulteriorpoliticalpurposes.AbehasbeenrelentlesslypushingtogetJapandeeplyinvolvedintheSouthChinaSeadisputestojustifyhiscountry"sbiggermilitarypresenceintheinternationalarena.DaysbeforeAbeembarkedonhisEuropeantour,itwasreportedthatJapanwilldispatchtheIzumo-classhelicoptercarrier,itslargestwarship,totheSouthChinaSea.The249-metervesselisduetomakestopsinSingapore,Indonesia,thePhilippinesandSriLankabeforeparticipatinginajointnavalexercisewithIndianandUSnavalvesselsintheIndianOceaninJuly.ThiswillbeJapan"sbiggestshowofnavalforceintheregionsinceWorldWarII.Foracountrythathasneversincerelyowneduptoitsmilitaristpast,suchanopenandhigh-profiledisplayofforceisitselfalarming,withoutmentioningitsintendedpurposeofmeddlinginthesovereigntydisputestowhichitisnotaparty.Japan"sinterferencecomesatatimewhentheSouthChinaSeadisputeshaveshownclearsignsofabatingthankstotherecenteffortsofthepartiesdirectlyinvolved,andwhenChinaisnegotiatingaframeworkforacodeofconductwithSoutheastAsiancountries,whichwillpavethewayforbuildingpeaceandstabilityinthewaters.Abe"smeddlingintheissue,atthisimportantstage,laysbarehisintentionofplayinguptheissueandcreatingtroubleforChina.Andhewillnodoubtwanttokeephypinguptheissuetodistracttheattentionofthoseathomefromthelandscandalinwhichheandhiswifehavebecomeembroiled.YetwhileitmaysuitAbetoplayuptheSouthChinaSeaissue,heshouldbeawarethemorehedoes,themorepeopleintheregionwillnotdeemJapantobearesponsiblecountry,animageJapanhastoestablishinthefirstplaceifitwantstobetreatedasanormalcountry.RidersscanofobikesinXi"an,Shaanxiprovince.Thebike-hirestartupisexperimentingwithadepositwaiversystemforusersinShanghaiandmayextendtheservicetoothercitiesinthecountry.[Photo/ChinaDaily]INWHATISBELIEVEDTOBEthecountry"sfirstcourtcaseagainstacompanyofferingashared-bicycleservice,a31-year-oldBeijingcitizenissuingOfo,oneofthecountry"sleadingbike-sharingcompanies,asheclaimsthathewasinjuredduetoafaultybikeherentedtwomonthsago,GuangzhouDailycommentedonTuesday:TheplaintiffclaimsthatOfoisresponsibleforinsufficientmaintenance,asheallegesthebrakesonthebikehehiredwerefaulty.Heisclaiming20,000yuan($2,900)ascompensationtocoverhismedicaltreatment,mentaldistressandtransportationcosts.Heisnotthefirstridertosolicitcompensationfrombike-sharingoperatorsinthecountryonthegroundsthatthebikestheyusedwerenotwellmaintained.Albeitmostclaimants"requestswereansweredandproperlydealtwithbythecompaniesconcerned,aroutineapproachtosituationslikethisisstillmissing.Accidentsinvolvingsharingbikes,whichhavebecomeverypopularinlessthanayear,willinevitablyincreaseasmorepeopleusethem.Thatwarrantsatailoredaccountabilitymechanismwhenitcomestotherespectiveresponsibilitiesofbothusersandthebike-sharingserviceproviders.Thebusinessmodelofstation-lessbikesisdesignedtohelpurbancommuterstravelthe"lastmile"moreefficiently.Toprotectusers"legalinterests,ensuringtheirbikesareinsatisfactoryconditionistheleastthebikeproviderscando.Admittedly,bigplayerssuchasMobikeandOfoarecoveredbyinsuranceandtheypledgetocompensateridersforanyinjuriesincurredwhileusingthebikes.Compensationisalsoavailableforpeopleinjuredbythoseusingthebikes.Sucheffortsarepraiseworthy,butnotenough.Theyshouldbeinstitutionalizedandstreamlinedinthewayinsuranceiscompulsoryforallvehicles.Bike-sharingserviceproviders,too,needlegalprotectionbecausetheyareatriskofbeingblackmailedbyunscrupuloususerswillingtogotogreatlengthstobecompensated.

李富根详细介绍了中国网、中国发展门户网、中国扶贫在线和南南减贫知识分享网站等四大平台在扶贫报道与国际合作方面的情况。马文森表示,中国网利用信息通信技术服务扶贫的实践探索令他耳目一新。粮农组织将与中国网加强合作,通过南南减贫知识分享网站将中国的减贫经验传播出去,让更多的发展中国家从中受益。中国网副总裁李富根联合国粮农组织驻中国和朝鲜代表马文森马文森认为,南南减贫知识分享网站可以帮助各国了解中国已取得的减贫成就及实践做法,这对发展中国家将是非常大的鼓舞。

如今,在“三变”改革的引领下,六盘水市正树立起攻坚克难的精神,以产业扶贫为抓手,发起脱贫攻坚总攻战。  中国网是国务院新闻办公室和国家互联网信息办公室领导,中国外文出版发行事业局管理的国家重点新闻网站,用中、英、法、西、德、日、俄、阿、韩、世界语等10个语种11个文版发布信息,访问者遍及全球200多个国家和地区,成为中国进行国际传播、信息交流的重要窗口。  中国网是国家重大事件、国务院新闻办公室和各大部委新闻发布会、“两会”新闻中心指定网络报道和直播媒体。全球访问量排名在200位左右,日均独立IP两千万,已进入世界主要网络媒体行列。

”“商业竞争是正常的,也会增进我们的合作基础。”李克强说。“我们一直铭记,在第二次世界大战最黑暗的那段岁月,中国人民向我们伸出了援助之手。这段宝贵的记忆,值得我们永志不忘。

网友看到微博后劝阻道,你一个花瓶只要负责貌美就好。

  美国广播公司和《华盛顿邮报》14日发布的联合民意调查结果显示,总统唐纳德·特朗普的民意支持率有所上升,而民主党在国会众议院选举中的民意支持率高于共和党。 资料图:当地时间9月25日,第73届联合国大会一般性辩论在纽约联合国总部开幕。 美国总统特朗普在会上发言。 中新社发  民调显示,特朗普的支持率为41%,较8月底提高5个百分点;54%的美国民众不满意他在总统职位上的表现。 总体而言,这名共和党籍总统自去年1月上任以来的支持率浮动范围在36%至42%之间,平均支持率为38%。

  这样的成绩单使特朗普成为哈里·杜鲁门之后历任美国总统任内首次中期选举前支持率最低的一位。

杜鲁门所属的民主党在1946年中期选举中失利,失去54个众议院席位。   美国沙龙网站解读,民调结果暗示共和党在今年中期选举中可能面临类似结局。   总体而言,在注册选民中,民主党众议员候选人获得53%的支持率,领先共和党候选人11个百分点;在潜在选民、即可能投票的选民中,民主党支持率领先共和党12至14个百分点。

  在一些具体议题上,美国民众更倾向于支持民主党的立场。

如医疗保险议题,53%的调查对象支持民主党,35%支持共和党;移民议题,50%支持民主党,38%支持共和党。   民主党更受女性青睐,获得59%的女选民支持,共和党为37%。 民主党在男选民中支持率为46%,共和党为48%。   这项联合民调由纽约兰格研究公司实施,于8日至11日电话随机采访1144名注册选民后得出。   国会中期选举定于11月6日投票,改选众议院全部席位和参议院三分之一席位。

如果想在435席的众议院成为多数,民主党需要夺回至少23席。